St. Louis Cardinals: What do they get at second base?

2015 ended with the St. Louis Cardinals posting a 100-win season despite a lackluster offense.  Cardinal second basemen struggled offensively a year ago.  How might 2016 be different?

I am very excited to spend the following articles examining the St. Louis Cardinals position by position in comparison fashion in an effort to find trends.  What is at stake is whether or not the 2015 Cardinals were a reality, an anomaly, on par with everyone else, better than everyone else, or worse than everyone else.

As a reminder, this article series will examine the 2015 offensive statistics in comparison to the MLB average one position at a time.  Also, each post will examine the aggregate statistics of each position as projected for 2016 to look for increases or decreases in light of concern or celebration.

Next up: second base.

The following was the MLB overall offensive statistics:

Now let’s look at the MLB average for second base:

Now let’s look at the Cardinals 2015 team average for players appearing at second base:

Okay, so let’s dig into this a little… What jumps out to you?  To me, I immediately noticed that in 2015 the Cardinals second basemen (like the Cardinals first basement examined in my previous article) hit below average and below slugging.  In addition, the Cardinals hit fewer home runs, fewer RBI, and a lesser WAR.

With that said, even in spite of the low numbers on these two stats, the Cards were able to amass a greater percentage of walks, lesser percentage of strikeouts, and a greater number of stolen bases.  In short, the Cardinals second basemen were better at getting on base through walks and then were stole more bases than their counterparts.

But, the statistics certainly do point to the Cardinal second basemen lack of offensive prowess.

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Okay, so we know that the likes of Kolton Wong, Greg Garcia, and Pete Kozma (yes, the sleepy Kozma himself) weren’t able to keep up with MLB trends.  Noting this, should fans expect this trend to continue?  Let’s turn to projections…

MLB second base Steamer projections:

Now, how about Steamer projections for the 2016 Cardinals:

Let’s break it down. If all goes as projected, the Cardinals (Wong, Gyorko, Garcia, and Carpenter– yes, Matt Carpenter is included in the steamer projections) are projected to better almost all of the statistical fields!

This increase accounts for 3.2 additional home runs than the MLB average, 7.6 additional RBI than the average, better batting average and OPS, and a better overall WAR (1.6 vs. 0.8).  Interesting too is the fact that the Cardinals are projected to account for an equal number of stolen bases all while accounting for a greater number of strikeouts.  This accounts for the decrease noted in OBP.

It is important to note that the steamer projections include Carpenter in the statistical projections for second base.  He does dramatically help the above statistics.  When Carpenter is removed from those appearing at second base, the projected numbers for the 2016 Cardinals changes to:

Removing Carpenter still has the 2016 Cardinals (thanks in large part to the inclusion of Gyorko) hitting a greater number of home runs, accounting for a greater number of RBI, still striking out at a higher rate, stealing fewer bases than the average, all with basically equal AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, and WAR.

Based on the projections, I feel that we should temper our judgement of the Cardinals second base and see what activity our players can create.  I also feel that fans should thank GM Mozeliak for adding Gyorko as this single addition looks like a force that will allow great change at second.  And just think of how the stats might climb if/when Aledmys Diaz makes his debut…

Next: St. Louis Cardinals: Any first base relief in sight?

I am very excited about this series and hope that you will follow along as I examine each position on the Cardinals when comparing 2015 stats against the stats of the rest of the league as well as looking at each positions projections.  Follow me on Twitter and let’s discuss each position as we progress through spring training and beyond!