St. Louis Cardinals: 2016 ZIPS and BaseRuns Projections

Projections peg the Cardinals an 84-win team in 2016, predicts 94 wins for Chicago, 83 wins for Pittsburgh

Dan Szymborski’s ZIPS projections for the 2016 St. Louis Cardinals were released yesterday at FanGraphs.com. As many of you might expect, he projects a less than stellar offensive unit. Matt Carpenter (3.8) and Yadier Molina (3.3) are the only Cardinal position players projected to have WAR values above 3.0.

Brandon Moss (1.2) and Matt Adams (0.9) are projected to combine for 2.1 WAR in 2016, less than the projected WAR of 2.4 for Kolten Wong by himself. The highest home run projection for the Cardinals is Brandon Moss with 21. Jedd Gyorko is projected to hit 18 home runs, while Matt Holliday is only projected to hit 13.

When it comes to pitching, ZIPS projects just 156.0 innings for Adam Wainwright, although the 3.12 ERA shows that ZIPS still has plenty of faith in the 34-year-old. ZIPS does project great starting pitching depth, as no St. Louis starter is projected to have an ERA above Mike Leake’s 3.77.

It should be noted that the projections were made to account for performances against Major League competition only, independent of injuries/suspensions. Projections are also taken for players that are likely to spend 2016 in Springfield or Memphis. They still project what Lance Lynn might have done this year, and they project Jayson Aquino to throw 115 1/3 innings in 2016 even though he has never pitched above the AA level.

Mar 10, 2014; Jupiter, FL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals newly acquired shortstop Aledmys Diaz (95) talks with Cardinals manager Mike Matheny (22) before the game against the Detroit Tigers at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports /

It seems, then, that the ZIPS projections could be useful in projecting what Minor League prospects are capable of, and what might be expected of them in the future. There is reason to think that Aledmys Diaz could have a promising future in St. Louis, considering ZIPS projects 118 hits, 11 home runs, and 54 RBI for Diaz against Major League competition in 2016.

ZIPS projects top pitching prospect Alex Reyes to walk nearly six batters per nine innings while sporting a 4.24 ERA in 2016, suggesting that he could be a year or two away from being ready to face Major League hitters.

When it comes to judging overall team performance, computer-based projections are anything but an exact science.

For instance, the computer-based projections aren’t meant to figure in statistical outliers. They only seek to predict how a team and its players would perform “in the aggregate.” For example, according to BaseRuns, the Cardinals played like an 89-win team last season despite winning 100 games.