The Cardinals Ideal Off-Season

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Outfield

While everyone knows that St. Louis needs a shortstop, not quite so many see the potential problems in the outfield. Most people figure Allen Craig as the starting right fielder with Adams sliding into a starting role at first, and Oscar Taveras as the Cardinals’ starting center fielder. That plan depends on three assumptions that I am not entirely comfortable making.

1. Oscar Taveras Can Play Major League Baseball: This is the easiest assumption to swallow, but the fact remains that Taveras hasn’t played in the majors. I think he can and will in the near future, but expecting 140 or 150 games of solid play out of him, may be too much. He definitely deserves a shot, but he’s still just a prospect and could need another year in the minors to be ready. That’s doubly true after an injury-filled 2013 season.

2. Oscar Taveras Can Play Center Field: If you really truly believe that Taveras is a big leaguer in 2014, and nothing I say is going to change that confidence, consider this: Taveras isn’t a natural center fielder. He’s been trying the position out, but scouts tend to think that he’s a corner outfielder. Even if he can play in the Majors, he may not make a good starting center fielder just yet.

3. Allen Craig Can Play Right Field: Craig is coming off of a pretty bad ankle sprain. He suffered a serious injury to his knee a couple of years back. He wasn’t fast to begin with. Although Allen swears that he’s more comfortable in the outfield, he may not be able to move well enough to play there consistently. The one thing you don’t want to do is risk a season-ending injury in the outfield. Maybe Craig does play in right field, but the prospect still scares me some.

Now, all of those assumptions could be true, but if they’re all wrong, the depth chart starts looking pretty thin: Jon Jay in center, Matt Holliday in left, and Shane Robinson in right, with no realistic backup for any of those spots (I’m pretty sure that Carpenter is the next option). That’s pretty ugly, honestly, and needs a fair bit of work. Holliday is somewhat injury prone, and needs a legitimate backup; Jay is an acceptable starter, but an improvement would be great; and Shane Robinson has no business starting at all.

Given that I don’t think Carlos Beltran is coming back, I make a couple of moves to really strengthen my outfield if I’m Mozeliak.

Chris Denorfia

Chris Denorfia is currently an outfielder for the Padres who put up pretty good numbers in 2013 (.279/.337/.395 with 10 home runs and 11 stolen bases). He also has good splits against left-handed pitching, hitting over .300 against lefties in his career.

He’s headed into the final year of his current contract and is owed 2.25 million dollars. While San Diego may be loath to part with him initially, gently reminding them that they had a record of 76-86 in 2013, that their prospects don’t look much better for 2014, and that Denorfia will likely move on in 2015 after a couple of good years may motivate them to make a deal for a decent pitching prospect  that could prove valuable in the future and Shane Robinson.

On the flip side, having a center fielder with a little bit of power and speed to platoon with Jay could make all the difference to the Cardinals. Granted, he isn’t the biggest upgrade in center, but it would at least give Taveras time to adjust, if he needs it.

Chris Young

Chris Young hit .247 with 47 home runs and 50 stolen bases combined in 2010 and 2011. In 2012 and 2013, he hit only .215 with 26 home runs and 18 stolen bases. As a thirty year old free agent, his stock has drastically decreased, but he still has the potential to be a .250 hitter with the possibility of a 20/20 season. Granted, that’s not phenomenal, but he could serve as the bench player that we’ve always wanted Shane Robinson to be: a decent hitter with flashes of power and speed combined with solid defense. If Matt Holliday goes down or we wind up needing a starting right fielder, Young could fill that gap adequately.

Additionally, he should be pretty cheap due to his two down years, and could be looking to bounce back with a one year contract before going after a much better deal next off-season. If Mo can sign him for between 3 and 5 million dollars (perhaps less), I think he could be a very good deal.

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The Wild Card

Grady Sizemore is a name that you may not have heard recently. He was great between 2005 and 2008, posting three consecutive 20/20 seasons, and one 30/30 season while bringing home two Gold Gloves. But he suffered a number of untimely injuries that limited his playing time between 2009 and 2011, and ultimately forced him off the field after the 2011 season.

It’s been two full years since he’s played major league baseball, but there are whispers that he’s healthy again and ready to play. While a full return to form seems very unlikely, his power may actually increase as he moves into his early thirties, his speed may not have faded entirely, and his defensive instincts ought to still be in tact. A .250-.260 season with 15-20 home runs and 10-15 stolen bases isn’t out of the realm of possibility, and there’s an outside chance that he puts up really phenomenal numbers.

Much like Young, Sizemore should be looking for a chance to raise his stock with a really great season before looking for a multi-year contract in 2015. St. Louis may be just the place to do that: we can offer him a strong lineup that will afford him a lot of protection, a track record of taking aging or injured players and bringing out their hidden talents, good coaching to fill in any potential holes in his game, and a possible shot at a Wold Series ring. All those things may make any offer from the Cardinals doubly tempting.

And because he’s missed two full year, his price may be incredibly low. It would be a big risk, but spending a million or two on Sizemore could pay huge dividends for the Cardinals, and provide Sizemore an opportunity to prove himself. If I’m Mozeliak, I take a shot and hope it pays off big.

Worst case scenario, he still cost less than Ty Wigginton.