It’s official. Both players passed their physical today, so the swap of third basemen is now approved. As promised, I compared some numbers to see what the Cardinals could be gaining or losing with a new man at the hot corner. Salary and age are both negligible.
I decided to limit the past stats to the last four years. Due to injuries, Rolen missed most of the ’05 season, while Glaus missed most of ’04. Both players missed significant time last season. So, by looking only at 2004-07, both games played and at-bats are nearly the same for both players.
First, let’s compare the basic offensive stats:
YR Name G AB HR RBI BA OBP SLG
04 Rolen 142 500 34 124 .314 .409 .598
04 Glaus 58 207 18 42 .251 .355 .575
05 Rolen 56 196 5 28 .235 .323 .383
05 Glaus 149 538 37 97 .258 .363 .522
06 Rolen 142 521 22 95 .296 .369 .518
06 Glaus 153 540 38 104 .252 .355 .513
07 Rolen 112 392 8 58 .265 .331 .398
07 Glaus 115 385 20 62 .262 .366 .473
Totaling the four year span:
Rolen 452 1609 69 305 .287
Glaus 475 1670 113 305 .256
Now let’s look their 2008 projections from ZIPS:
08 Rolen 106 380 9 55 .255 .331 .397
08 Glaus 134 469 27 82 .247 .350 .469
How about a couple of defensive stats:
Range Factor 04 05 06 07
Rolen 3.06 3.19 3.06 2.99
Glaus 2.07 3.01 2.80 2.52
Zone Rating 04 05 06 07
Rolen .822 .875 .803 .847
Glaus .652 .766 .741 .737
Fielding Pct. 04 05 06 07
Rolen .977 .966 .965 .969
Glaus .950 .946 .963 .967
The bottom line? It’s no secret that Rolen is a much better defender. He’s won seven gold gloves (Glaus has never earned one). Scotty’s glove cannot be replaced. What the Cardinals are giving up on defense, they’ll make up for with Glaus’ offense. His power numbers have remained a plus over the years, while Rolen’s have been in a steady decline since his first shoulder injury. The Cards’ lineup should look a bit more dangerous with Glaus penciled in behind Pujols. Protecting Albert in the lineup is often overlooked. ZIPS projects similar averages for both players, but gives Glaus a clear advantage in home runs and slugging percentage. Now we have something else to get excited about for the upcoming season.
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